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Polymarket

Coin Bureau·5m ago
🇺🇸JUST IN: Trump says he'll put major tariffs on Mexico and Canada over two crises hitting the US.

This comes as nearly 7,000 cases of illness have been reported across 34 US states from contaminated Mexican lettuce.

Meanwhile, over 900 Canadian wildfires are blanketing the US...

Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be between 3.00% and 3.49%?

↑10%

$27K vol

Will Mexico’s 2026 Annual Inflation be less than 2.50%?

↓2%

$777.881527 vol

unusual_whales·24m ago
BREAKING: The US is implementing a readiness project to test large-scale national mobilization scenarios, per WSJ.

This shift coincides with a new rule taking effect in December 2026 to automatically register men aged 18 to 26 using federal data sources, moving the...

US military draft authorized in 2026?

↑5%

$514K vol

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"My Models Are Extremely Negative": Goldman's 1-Delta Desk Warns 'Reflexivity Remains Key'

by Tyler Durden

Friday, Jul 24, 2026 - 07:50 PM

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Reflexivity (the process in which something refers to, reflects on, or influences itself, creating a feedback loop between observation and the thing being observed) is a topic that popularized in finance and economics by none other than George Soros in his 1987 book 'The Alchemy of Finance'. Since then it has become a key non-linear thought process for some of the world's top investors, arguing that participants' biased perceptions and market prices form a two-way feedback loop..

Trump-Iran-Crude-Midterms Reflexivity

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What If The Bond Market Is Right About AI?

Hyperscalers are still spending aggressively on AI, but markets are becoming increasingly sensitive to the cost as free cash flow deteriorates, debt issuance surges and higher rates weigh on valuations. Credit markets are already flashing caution while equities remain relatively complacent, leaving AI leaders vulnerable if spending continues to outpace monetization.

The Dominoes Are Starting To Fall

The technical backdrop continues to deteriorate as major indices test key support levels just as positioning and macro risks become increasingly unfavorable. The charts suggest the market's margin for error is shrinking, with a break of support potentially unleashing significant mechanical selling.

The Oil Time Bomb: How To Play It

Oil has quietly staged one of its strongest advances of the year, yet most cross-asset markets remain surprisingly relaxed. The longer crude keeps grinding higher, the greater the risk that today's isolated energy move spills over into broader market volatility.

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Europe has quietly staged a comeback, outperforming the Nasdaq by almost 5% over the past month. But as oil and gas prices climb while European volatility keeps falling, investors may be underestimating one of the region's biggest macro risks.

Everyone Gave Up On Silver

Silver has gone from mania to neglect. Speculative positioning remains subdued, options markets have swung from upside chasing to downside hedging, and a technical breakout could trigger a squeeze far more powerful than most investors expect.

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